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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It frequently serves as a type of apology. We regret we misjudged your squad in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who engineered the largest turnaround is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or merely the greatest upset.

However this year's competition is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent conference winners fading and recent underperformers improving in unison. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's competing with several other elite coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current is not a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still